The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Approximate reading time: 3m 31s

Why do people tend to overestimate or underestimate their abilities?

You may have heard the popular saying: „The problem with the world is that intelligent people are full of doubts, while stupid people are full of confidence.“

There is certainly someone around you who sees themselves as smarter and more knowledgeable than others. Someone who thinks they are very competent in a given subject and have nothing more to learn, but in fact knows almost nothing.

Look at it from another angle as well - there are people who are truly good at something, but insist that they are not that experienced.
Why does this happen?

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The Dunning-Kruger effect provides a psychological explanation for this question. It is a type of cognitive bias in which people incorrectly assess their cognitive abilities as greater than they really are. The effect was described as a result of a study conducted by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger  titled „Unskilled and Unaware of It - How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments“.

Their study is linked to an interesting criminal case from 1995, when a 44-year-old man robbed two banks.

This refers to the criminal case of Mr. McArthur Wheeler. The prisoner had read about some special properties of lemon juice and interpreted them in a rather strange way. He assumed that since the chemical properties of lemon juice were somewhat similar to invisible ink, his face would appear invisible or blurred to security cameras.
Fueled by confidence (from rubbing lemon juice on his face), he boldly carried out the robberies in Pittsburgh without using any disguise. However, the footage clearly showed his face (obviously), and he was arrested the same day. The man was quite shocked that the police had found him so soon.

In their report, Dunning and Kruger point out that those affected by this cognitive bias overestimate their abilities or talents. In other words, they have no idea how incapable they really are. People who perform poorly on a test realize that they did badly, but not how badly.
The two psychologists suggest that this kind of overestimation is partly due to the fact that the unskilled suffer from a "double burden." They not only reach incorrect conclusions and make poor choices, but their incompetence or lack of skills deprives them of the ability even to realize that they are not qualified.
In other words, some incapable people are too incompetent to realize their own incompetence.
There is another interesting side to this - people who are more capable than the average person sometimes do not understand it. The more knowledgeable or experienced you are in a given field, the more you see the gaps and limitations in your knowledge. From this also arises distrust in your own abilities.

An experienced computer programmer might think something like: „Well, I know how to create this program, but I don't know many other important things related to it that other people might understand, so I'm not sure whether I am that good."

According to Dunning and Kruger's theory, the mistaken assessment of the unskilled stems from an error about themselves, while the mistaken assessment of the highly competent stems from an error about others. This effect can be explained by several factors:

1. Lack of knowledge and experience: People who do not have sufficient knowledge or experience in a given field lack reference points by which to assess their abilities. Their incompetence deprives them of the ability to realize their lack of skills.

2. Double burden of incompetence: Those who are incompetent often suffer from a "double burden." They not only make incorrect conclusions and choices, but are also unable to recognize their own incompetence. This causes them to become overconfident and express inflated self-assessments.

3. Projection of knowledge: People who encounter a lack of knowledge in a given field may project their limited understanding onto others. This leads them to assume that others have the same limitations, further reinforcing their illusion of competence.

4. Insufficient self-assessment: The absence of adequate self-assessment can lead to an overestimation of one's abilities. People who do not have the means to accurately assess their own competence become trapped in the vicious circle of inflated self-assessments.

To overcome the Dunning-Kruger effect and develop a more realistic self-assessment, people should focus on improving their skills, learning, and continuous self-evaluation. Those who are truly competent in a given field are often more likely to recognize their shortcomings and strive for constant improvement.

For businesses and managers, it is important to conduct training, assessments, and dialogues with employees in order to more accurately determine their knowledge and skills. This can help people recognize their strengths and weaknesses, thereby overcoming the Dunning-Kruger effect.

The next step is to build an environment where people feel comfortable expressing their shortcomings and working in teams that support mutual learning and growth. Mutual feedback and assistance can contribute to building a more realistic and healthy self-assessment among all members of the organization.

If you yourself manage a company or department, you can help your employees neutralize the Dunning-Kruger effect. Assess the competence of each one using personal observations and reviewing their job description. One of the most effective ways is to conduct training and tests that determine as accurately as possible the problem areas and the measures you need to take. 

We can organize tests for your employees to assess the real capabilities of each person. The tests can be created specifically for you, or we can make an electronic version of the test you usually use in your work.

We also have ready-made tests you can use right away.

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